“When development fails, your turn to diplomacy. When diplomacy fails, you turn to the military” – Unknown from the halls of the Pentagon
The Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was first established in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. It symbolizes global disaster at midnight and is checked by atomic experts every January.
The time’s official setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight representing the end of the world. It has been adjusted backward and forwards 24 times since, with the farthest from midnight being 17 minutes in 1991, and the nearest being 100 seconds to midnight presently.
The Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock is not a gauge to track the ups and downs of the global power struggle; rather, it is meant to reflect fundamental shifts in mankind’s level of continuous danger throughout the nuclear era.
Other potential sources of danger that a board may consider include nuclear threats, climate change, bioterrorism, and artificial intelligence.
Advancing to Midnight
Scientists advanced the clock to two minutes before midnight on January 24, 2018, owing to nuclear dangers that were most severe at the time. The combination of North Korea’s recent actions and the Trump administration in the United States’ response, according to the researchers, was the proof that a nuclear attack was becoming increasingly likely.
In 2019, the clock was left unchanged due to the twin dangers of nuclear weapons and climate change, and the risk of those threats being “heightened this past year by the use of information warfare to undermine democracy around the world, raising danger from these and other threats.”
In January 2020, the clock was advanced 100 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight since the Clock’s start in 1947.
The clock’s setting was unaltered in 2021 and 2022.
In 2021, the new US administration would continue to seek change in certain areas that made the world a little safer, but it would not be enough to reverse global negative International Security developments that had been developing for years and continued into 2022.
How far forward with the clock move in 2022?
If the clock were adjusted on an hourly basis, it would have moved a little further forward on February 24th, when a nuclear superpower invaded one of its neighbors, Russia invasion of Ukraine. In the beginning, we had lots of discussions trying to find a diplomatic solution, but each day that faded. Leaders all around the globe continue to preach diplomacy while providing no evidence that they are capable of following through on their promises.
Is there a diplomatic solution? You may describe Russia’s actions as a special military operation or an invasion, depending on your perspective. You can be pro-or anti-Russia, pro-or anti-Ukraine, and so on. Either way, both sides need to be included for a diplomatic solution to occur.
This is the dilemma for the Biden Administration. How do you condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin and his actions, and provide assistance to Ukraine, while not escalating the conflict and advancing the doomsday clock?
Will the EU follow in the US’ footsteps? At the beginning of March, the European Parliament gave the Ukrainian president a lengthy standing ovation before and after his speech, during which he spoke about Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Zelensky asked the EU to “prove” its commitment to Ukraine. “Are you with us?”
Then Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov prepared to speak. The only reaction he received was seeing nearly all Western countries, walking out of the room. Diplomacy had all but ceased.
I am not saying that listening to the Russian talk about the Neo-Nazi brigade in eastern Ukraine, that Russia was only doing security operations in Ukraine, but those few minutes showed me that there was no longer a diplomatic solution to the invasion of Ukraine.
Where do we go from here?
Former President Bush released a statement on February 24th, “Russia’s attack on Ukraine constitutes the gravest security crisis on the European continent since World War II. I join the international community in condemning Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine. The American government and people must stand in solidarity with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people as they seek freedom and the right to choose their own future. We cannot tolerate the authoritarian bullying and danger that Putin poses. Ukraine is our friend and democratic ally and deserves our full support during this most difficult time.” President Biden has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal and that there is growing evidence that war crimes have been committed by Russian troops. The majority of the EU has made similar statements. Diplomacy has died, the US and EU actions have shown this.
Tick Tick Boom
The doomsday clock is at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight since the Clock’s start in 1947. The main dangers are nuclear weapons and climate change. Climate change continues to be neglected by world leaders while nuclear tensions rise. The EU and US have solidified their support for Ukraine, but it remains to be seen if they will take any concrete steps to help them. The doomsday clock is ticking and the world is at a crossroads. What will happen next?
Only time will tell.
