It’s been just over a month since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and the Ukrainian people have put up fierce resistance. Despite overwhelming odds, they have managed to hold onto most of the country. Meanwhile, the West has responded with cries for regime change in Russia and accusations of war crimes against President Putin and his soldiers. But what is the Russian offramp? Is there a way for Russia to back out of this without losing face? And could it lead to a tale of two Ukraines?
The Russian offramp is a difficult proposition. On the one hand, Putin cannot be seen to back down in the face of western pressure. That would be a huge loss of face, not just for him but for Russia as a whole. On the other hand, continuing the invasion and occupation of Ukraine is not sustainable in the long term. The Ukrainian people are not going to give up without a fight, and the west is not going to let this go unpunished. So what is the Russian offramp?
One possibility is that Putin could try to negotiate a partition of Ukraine, creating a pro-Russian “eastern Ukraine” and a pro-western “western Ukraine”. This would be a risky move, as it is not clear how the Ukrainian people would react. They might see it as a betrayal and rise up against Putin and his allies. Or they might accept it as the best way to avoid further bloodshed. Either way, it would be a gamble for Putin. Geographically, Putin would probably use the Dnipro River as a dividing line. He would allow all that west of the river to be a sovereign Ukraine and under the Presidency of Zelensky. East of the river, Putin would instill a pro-Russian government.
But what would the west do? Would they accept this partition? It’s doubtful. They have already shown that they are not willing to accept anything less than a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. And even if they did, it is not clear whether this would be a lasting solution. The east-west divide in Ukraine is deep and has been growing for years. This partition could simply be a way to delay the inevitable and buy Putin some time. This would also go against Zelensky’s stated demand of “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”.
Another possibility is that Putin could offer to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine in exchange for a lifting of sanctions and recognition of Russia’s reunification of the land corridor from eastern Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula and part of the Donetsk region. This would be considered by Russia, as completing the goal of its military, and would be a face-saving way for Putin to back down, but it is unlikely to be acceptable to the west.
It is clear that there is no easy way out for Putin. Whatever he decides, it is likely to have major consequences not just for Ukraine but for the whole world. There are also the comments made by President Biden, about Putin cannot stay in power. Second, President Putin is a war criminal. These are harsh words from President Biden, but they do not change the fact that Putin is in a very difficult position. He cannot be seen to back down, but he cannot continue the invasion indefinitely. So what will he do? What would the west do if Putin, just left right now? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: the future of Ukraine, and perhaps the world hangs in the balance and It will not be an easy or quick process to bring an end to this war.
The west must begin thinking about our desired endstate too. There is a tactical and political endstate to the invasion and they may be competing. Planning for the war’s conclusion and considering not just the immediate termination, but also the long-term settlement of the conflict is paramount.
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