Welcome to my Daily Intel update regarding the Russia Ukraine War, so allow us to bring you up to speed on the latest developments. Fighting continues near Donetsk and Mariupol, with each side making small gains over the past few days. The Ukrainian government has announced there is a full-scale assault on Donetsk, while Russia has reportedly sent more tanks and troops into Ukraine. In other news, NATO has condemned Russia for its “illegal intervention” in Ukraine and called for an immediate ceasefire. President Biden has stated that Putin’s actions are a genocide.
Each day I look at the major battlespace, the strategic objectives of Ukraine and Russia, how the world is responding, and finally my analysis of the tactical to strategic fight. Stay tuned for further updates as the situation develops.
Current Intel
- Ukraine (Strategic)
- Russia (Strategic)
- Around the World
- Operational Activity
- Analyst’s Notes
- FAQ
- Who’s who in the zoo
Previous
24 April 2022
Ukraine (Strategic)
The Azov Regiment showed in another video how women and children survive in the basements of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, hiding from Russian forces. The relevant video, “Forgotten by the World, but not by the Azov”, the regiment posted on Telegram and on YouTube.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked U.S. President Joe Biden for his leadership in supporting Ukraine. “Two months of heroic nationwide resistance of Ukraine to the Russian aggression have passed. I’m grateful to U.S. President Joe Biden and the people of the United States for leadership in supporting Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote. (Twitter)
Ukraine’s independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty are non-negotiable in talks with Russia.
The Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry has been disappointed with a statement made by Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg about Ukraine’s European future. Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg stated that Ukraine should not receive EU candidate status this June and should not be offered EU membership. (ukinform)
Russia (Strategic)
Asian and African countries have historically been close to Russia but now they start to change their attitude towards Russia in Ukraine’s favor. (ukinform)
The Czech Republic has put forward the initiative to replace Russia in the UN Human Rights Council, submitting the relevant application. “Russia must be held accountable for aggression, human suffering, and destruction in Ukraine. That is why the country’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council has been suspended. The Czech Republic seeks to replace Russia in the Council, while support for human rights is a priority for the Czech government,” the Foreign Ministry wrote.(twitter)
Around the World
The heads of the State Department and the Pentagon arrived in Kyiv for talks with Zelensky. US announcing
- $713 million in Foreign Military Financing for 16 European countries, including $322 million for Ukraine
- Foreign military sales $165 million for non-US/NATO, i.e., Russian ammunition to Ukraine
The United States will re-open its embassy in Kyiv, and Pres. Biden is expected to nominate Bridget Brink as ambassador, Sec. Blinken and Sec. Austin told Pres. Zelensky in a secretive visit to Kyiv.
In the midst of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, China’s largest credit card brand Unionpay has become the latest financial services network to suspend its negotiations with the Russian banks after payment giants Visa and Mastercard closed down their services in the country fearing the devasting sanctions. (Mint)
Bank of America has blocked the accounts of part of the Russian diplomatic missions in the United States. Russian Ambassador Anatoliy Antonov said the bank had this way “blockaded” the embassy’s work. “The embassy is in essence blockaded by U.S. government entities. Accounts of our two consulates in Houston and New York have been closed by Bank of America,” Antonov said. (Reuters)
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Kenya Andriy Pravednyk has presented his credentials to Rwandan President Paul Kagame. During the meeting, the President of Rwanda expressed his solidarity with Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. He also extended his condolences to the Ukrainian people and personally to President Volodymyr Zelensky for crimes committed by Russian troops in Ukraine. (Ukraine Embassy in Kenya)
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will pay a visit to Ukraine on April 28, 2022. (Twitter)
Operational Activity
Russian troops continued to pound Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal facility in Mariupol. (CNN)
According to some reports, the Russians are prepping for another assault on Azovstal. (The Week)
Russian forces secured limited gains northwest of Severodonetsk but remain unlikely to be able to launch massed offensive operations. Twitter – OSINTTechnical)
Additional Russian forces are deploying to reinforce unsuccessful attacks on the Izyum front.
Ukrainian civilians in occupied Kharkiv Oblast are reportedly organizing volunteer movements to resist Russian occupation measures, similar to previously documented actions in southern Ukraine.
Analyst’s Notes
Andriy Yermak, head of the Presidental Administration in Ukraine, was very clear on French TV regarding the ” independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty are non-negotiable”. This is echoing President Zelenskyy’s earlier comment that Ukraine’s sovereignty will not be part of any talks with Russia. If this is a Ukrainian redline, then the question of seeing for peace by Putin, wanting a land bridge between Russia and Crimea becomes a moot point. Will Ukraine add that Crimea needs to fall back under Ukraine?
It has been interesting watching the shift of Russian support in Asia and Africa. President Putin’s most favorable marks come from those living in African nations. For example, the President of Rwanda showed his support for Ukraine in its battle against Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked invasion. Also, he extended his condolences to the Ukrainian people and personally to President Volodymyr Zelensky for the horrors carried out by Russian troops in Ukraine.
20 April 2022
Ukraine (Strategic)
Ukraine has seen more than 7.7 million people flee their homes as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (BBC)
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Kyiv on Thursday. (Euobserver)
According to Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk, as part of the exchange of prisoners of war with Russia, 19 people, including 10 military personnel, are returning to Ukraine. (Al Arabiya News)
In the port city of Mariupol, defenders have spotted enemy V-marked tanks in the city, which are known to have been used by the Russian military who committed atrocities in Bucha, Kyiv Region. (ukinform)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted a bill to the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law in the country. (Izvestia)
The Ukrainian parliament voted on April 21 to extend martial law for another 30 days, from April 25. (Kyiv Independent)
Russia (Strategic)
On February 3, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov reportedly received a plot to assassinate Ukraine’s top officials during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Apa)
According to reports from British intelligence, the UK Ministry of Defence, Russian forces are expected to make significant progress ahead of its yearly May 9 Victory Day celebrations. This may have an impact on how quickly and aggressively they will attempt operations in the run-up to this date. (Yahoo)
Earlier on Thursday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Russian President Vladimir Putin that today the entire Mariupol is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the people’s militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic, and the territory of the plant “with the remnants of nationalists and foreign mercenaries is securely blocked.” (Jerusalem Post)
Russia’s international reserves increased by $1.7 billion from April 8 to April 15 (Izvestia)
Soviet World War II victory flags are appearing in Ukrainian areas Russian Forces have seized (CNN)
Around the World
The United States will allocate an additional $800 million military aid package to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden announced on April 21. (CNBC)
Germany is negotiating with Russia on the creation of humanitarian corridors in Mariupol. This was announced on April 21 by German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock at a joint press conference with her Estonian colleague Eva-Maria Liimets, broadcast by the Russian state TV, NTV channel. (uazmi)
Operational Activity
Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted seven strikes on Russian Forces in southern Ukraine. (unverified)
Russian Forces have failed to advance both in Luhansk Region and in the direction of Huliaipole over the past day. (CNN)
Over the past two days, the Azov Regiment has destroyed three enemy tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and one armored personnel carrier (APC) in the besieged port city of Mariupol. (ukrinform)
The Battle of Donbas, “the second phase” of Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine, has started. (Kyiv independent)
Analyst’s Notes
Sanctions: The US and the west sanctioned the Russian Central Bank, intending on being able to remove Russia’s ability to make international purchases and payments. The sanctions froze approximately $300 billion USD. Russian international reserves consist of foreign currencies, foreign government bonds, special drawing rights, reserve position in the IMF, and monetary gold. Izvestia is reporting that the international reserves have increased over the last week. This is an indicator that the Russian government is being increasingly concerned about Russian flooding the local banks to withdraw their saving.
Phase II: The second stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — an assault in the eastern Donbas region — has begun. The issue is: will it be any more successful and competent than phase one, and will Ukraine have enough troops and weapons to deter or even block it? Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, stated on Tuesday that the capture of Mariupol is “a very significant moment in this entire special operation.”
The Russian objective is quite obvious and openly declared: to gain control of the entire eastern half of Ukraine, which has been under rebel occupation since 2014. A second objective is to break the remaining resistance in the port city of Mariupol, which was Ukraine’s third-largest city, in order to form a land bridge connecting Russia’s Rostov Oblast and Crimea, which it seized from Ukraine eight years ago. From a political stance, if Putin is able to build this land bridge, will he sue for peace? Will Zelenskyy accept giving Russia everything east of the Dnipro River? Will the west accept these terms?
19 April 2022
Ukraine (Strategic)
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has requested that the United States designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism during a phone conversation between the two leaders. (CNBC)
Russia (Strategic)
According to several U.S. officials familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence assessments, Russia has revised its Ukraine war strategy to take control of the Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a target date of early May. (CNN)
At least 200,000 Russians have abandoned their homes and jobs for fear of being persecuted as ‘scum and national traitors.’ (Al Jazeera)
Russia successfully conducted a new intercontinental ballistic missile “Sarmat” test launch. This was reported in the Russian Defense Ministry on 20 April. (Izvestia)
Around the World
U.S. officials say the specific sanctions triggered by the state sponsor of the terror label, like arms embargoes, have all already been imposed on Russia. Therefore, it will not move forward with labeling Russia as state-sponsored terrorism. (CNBC)
The U.S. is expanding its program for Ukrainian migrants. The current program allowed up to 30,000, but the Biden Administration is increasing it to 60,000 (San Diego Union-Tribune)
Russia accused America and the west of “doing everything to drag out Russia’s military operation in Ukraine” (BBC)
Israel is willing to host a possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (TASS)
President of the European Council Charles Michel visited Borodyanka, a town 40 kilometers northwest of Kyiv that was heavily bombarded by Russia, on 20 April. (The Kyiv Independent)
The European Union is preparing new measures to prevent Russia from evading sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, according to Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics (VOA)
Operational Activity (Operational / Tactical)
Ukrainian troops have held up an advance by Russian forces from the northeastern city of Izyum towards nearby Sloviansk, Oleksiy Arestovych, a Ukrainian presidential advisor, said on Wednesday. “They have focused their forces there, that is where they are trying to advance, but so far they are not succeeding” (VOA)
The Ukrainian 36 Marine Brigade leader, which is defending Azovstal in Mariupol, has requested aid and stated that they are prepared to battle until their last drop of blood. In Mariupol, both the 36th Marine Brigade and the Azov Regiment carry out successful insurgence campaigns. (Washington Post)
The Azov battalion said the city’s main metallurgical plant was almost destroyed after Russia dropped bunker-buster bombs in a final assault on the port city of Mariupol. (iNews)
Ukraine’s defense ministry accuses Russia of using long-range bombers in Mariupol, where fighting is raging around a steel plant and the port. (Al Jazeera)
The governor of the eastern Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said later on Tuesday that three civilians were killed by Russian shelling (NDTV)
Analyst’s Notes
Red line: What is the U.S./West’s redline? In my military career, I would have thought that genocide would have been a red line. However, in 2022, the Biden Administration’s view it must be only genocide if it’s against NATO or U.N. partners. I understand the logic behind it, if we get involved, Russia has nukes, and they are not afraid to use them. This logic is going to get us into political problems in the future. What are we telling Kim Jun Un? Once you have a nuke, can you do what you want? What are we telling Iran? You better get nukes as soon as you can? The rest of the world? Well, if you got nukes, never give them up. I bet Ukraine is questioning its decision to sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
Russian tactics: Your T.V. military analyst will state that Russia is targeting civilians as a method of genocide or other attrition-based methodologies. Many military theorists, like Duhuet, have said that causing mass casualties with the population will force the government to capitulate. I was taught that the atomic bomb was necessary to save American lives.
However, Russia uses standard Russian methods: clear a region using heavy artillery, then deploy mechanized infantry. The battle for Mariupol is just that, shell for as long as necessary, then move through. The Russians learned in Afghanistan that attempting to clear a village is very costly both on equipment and personnel. Shaping the battlespace with heavy artillery maintains both equipment and personnel.
Immigration: The U.S. has a long-standing failed immigration policy. With the concern of migrant caravans flooding to the southern border due to title 42 expiring, the Ukrainian conflict is not helping.
Following delays in establishing a legal pipeline for immigrants to travel straight to the United States, the program has been expanded to include more Ukrainian refugees who have arrived in the United States.
Refugees do not require entry visas in Mexico, so they have flown to the country and applied for admittance on humanitarian grounds at the U.S. border, where thousands are queuing up.
18 April 2022
The Port City of Mariupol
Despite Russian demands that Ukrainians give up their city, the besieged city of Mariupol has yet to fall, according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. The Azovstal factory is still the base of operation.
There are allegedly 1,000 civilians still hiding inside the factory, which is being shelled constantly. Major Serhiy Volyna wrote a letter to Pope Francis, which was published in Monday’s Ukrainnska Pravda Newspaper.
“Your Holiness, Pope Francis!
I am not a Catholic, I am Orthodox. I believe in God and I know that light always overcomes darkness.
I have not seen your appeals to the world and I have not read all your recent statements; I have been fighting for more than 50 days, completely surrounded, and all I have time for is a fierce battle for every metre of this city that is surrounded by the enemy.
I am a warrior. I am an officer who took an oath of allegiance to his country. And I am ready to fight to the end. [I do so] Despite the overwhelming force of the enemy, despite the inhumane conditions on the battlefield, the constant artillery and rocket fire, the lack of water, food and medicine.
You have probably seen a lot in your life. But I am sure that you have never seen the things that are happening to Mariupol. Because this is what hell on earth looks like.
I have little time to describe all the horrors I see here every day. Women with children and babies are living in bunkers at the factory, they are hungry and cold. Every day they are living in the sights of enemy aircraft. The wounded die every day because there is no medicine, no water, no food.
I am turning to you for help. Because the time has come when prayers are not enough. Help save them. After the bombing of the drama theatre, no one has any trust in the Russian occupiers any more. Bring the truth to the world, evacuate people and save their lives from the hands of Satan, who wants to burn all living things.”
The Security Service of Ukraine released an interception of a phone call in which a Russian serviceman talks about the leadership’s order to raze Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to the ground.
Ukraine (Strategic)
Russian forces have begun the “fight for the Donbas,” according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, marking a major new offensive in Russia Ukraine War. A significant part of Russian forces’ presence in Ukraine is concentrated in the Donbas region for the offensive.
Russia (Strategic)
Putin has promoted the brigade responsible for Bucha massacre to “guard brigade” this is the 2nd highest level of promotion. As noted, before, war crimes (scaring the population into submission) are part of Russia’s military doctrine. This is a consistent theme in Russia’s military engagements (see Syria and the prior Ukraine invasion for the latest examples)
Russian forces used a missile to strike the World Central Kitchen in Kharkiv. This was a humanitarian aid food distribution run by a well-known hunger activist and celebrity chef, Jose Andres. Like… what depravity exists when you use one of your last precision-guided missiles to destroy a non-combatant humanitarian relief center?
Russification of deported Ukrainians is taking place in Russia. The self-proclaimed mayor of Crimea Sergey Aksyonov announced the creation of summer “retraining camps” on the peninsula for teachers from Kherson, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukrainian children will be forced to take “language courses.”
A Russian government order demonstrates that Moscow made an emergency order to relocate nearly 100,000 people from the conflict zone to areas including Siberia, the North Caucasus, the Far East, and even the Arctic Circle.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 16 that the Kremlin is increasingly arresting Russian and proxy officers for failures in the war in Ukraine. The GUR reported Russian military authorities established a commission intended to run from March 2 to April 24 in occupied Horlivka to identify the reasons for personnel shortages among Russian forces. The GUR reported that Russian investigators discovered the commanders of Russia’s 3rd Motor Rifle Brigade was 100% staffed at the beginning of the invasion when it in fact only had 55% of its personnel and arrested two battalion commanders in the brigade. T
Around the World
After the Russia Ukraine War, Marine Le Pen said that if she were president, she would support NATO-Russia Reconciliation.
The Ministry of Defense of Japan will send to Ukraine a batch of nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) suits and masks, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, to help the country fight off a Russian invasion.
The United States will apply economic and financial pressure tools primarily targeting Russia’s defense industry to thwart any attempt by Russia to renew its potential amid the war Moscow is waging in Ukraine.
The Italian Parliament has approved arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Operational Activity
Russian forces continue to amass in the Izyum area in eastern Ukraine
The Russian forces that amassed in the Izyum area launched small scale attacks and were unsuccessful
Ukraine claims they have taken back two towns in the Kharkiv region and made progress on two more
Analyst’s Notes
Russia has likely captured Mariupol. They likely took it on 4/16, despite denial from the Ukrainian General Staff. There might still be a few pockets of Ukrainian soldiers left but they will likely be cleared out. The only way to retake Mariupol is with a counteroffensive. However, Russian forces will attempt to force the remaining defenders to capitulate using overwhelming firepower. The Russian forces realize a clearing operation would take time and be very costly both on personnel and equipment.
On April 18, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of the “battle for Donbas.”
The Russian Armed Forces have moved on to the second phase of the military operation – an attack on the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) grouping in the Donbas region. Air superiority will play an important role in it. There have been reported massive volleys at the positions of the AFU from Donetsk and Lugansk. Earlier on Monday, Russian forces struck a Ukrainian logistics center in Lvov, destroying a large shipment of foreign weapons. Operational-tactical aviation began to work more intensively: in a day it struck almost two hundred targets, including the Tochka-U missile warhead plant in Dnepropetrovsk.
The head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, on Tuesday, April 19, announced the start of the next phase of the Russian special operation to protect the Donbas region. He recalled that Russia’s special operation is aimed at “the complete liberation of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.”
He did add that this will be a conventional weapons fight, “Russia is not considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, we are talking only about conventional weapons.”
Russia is also increasing its neo-Nazi propaganda regarding the Donbas region. Lavrov stated that Moscow investigated atrocities committed by neo-Nazi battalions and the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Bucha.
17 April 2022
Ukraine (Strategic)
Even though this is more of operational activity, the defense of Mariupol is focused on a single massive campus of a metallurgical plant, the Azovstal metallurgical plant. There are an estimated 2500 Ukrainian Soldiers using it as a fortress.
The Russian military has allegedly stolen over $100,000 from Ukraine’s national postal service. The money was supposed to be spent on staff payrolls and pensions. Ukraine is in talks with Russia to get the money back, according to Igor Smilyansky, Ukraine’s national postal operator Ukrposhta’s chief. The funds were stolen from a branch in the southern city of Melitopol.
Russia (Strategic)
Izvestia, a daily broadsheet newspaper in Russia, reports that the United States was preparing to transfer the closed biological research laboratories in Ukraine to Mongolia. The Mongolian National Center for Zoonotic Diseases denied that the United States planned to establish bio-labs in Mongolia, and the U.S. Department of Defense did not respond.
On April 14, 2022, Russia fired on the Klimovo settlement in its Bryansk Oblast as a pretext for blaming Ukraine for the attack, according to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), which leaked an intercepted phone conversation of a purported Russian soldier. In response to alleged “attacks” on Russian soil, Moscow has threatened to escalate missile strikes against Kyiv. The Security Service of Ukraine released the audio, but it has yet to be independently confirmed.
According to Ombudsman Lyudmyla Denisova, Russian proxies in the occupied parts of Donbas conscript 16-17-year-old children.
Around the World
More weapons from the United States are being sent to Ukraine’s border. The weapons are being delivered at the border for Ukraine to move from there to staging areas inside of Ukraine. This is consistent with the US, ‘no boots on the ground’ policy. However, the US has trainers in Poland to help familiarize Ukrainian forces with the new weaponry being delivered.
The European Union has imposed a fifth round of sanctions on Russia, and Italy has prohibited Russian-flagged ships from docking at its ports beginning last Sunday.
Operational Activity
This was reported by the Air Force Command on Telegram, according to Ukrinform. “On April 16, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Force and the Joint Forces Operation forces hit 13 air targets of the Russian occupiers: a warplane, a helicopter, five unmanned aerial vehicles, and six cruise missiles,” the statement said.
On April 18, Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) air-launched high-precision missiles against the 124th Joint Logistics Forces Command Center of the Ukrainian troops in the Lviv region. This facility is where the Ukrainians are processing and storing foreign weapons from European countries and the US.
Analyst’s Notes
Russian reinforcements drawn from troops that had battled throughout Kyiv have yet to stage a second offensive in eastern Ukraine. Due to their losses in Kyiv, their morale and combat readiness have greatly suffered and will provide little to the Russian troops already in eastern Ukraine.
As a follow on the reinforcements. It appears as if Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine have begun conscriptions for 16 and 17-year-olds. If this report is confirmed, this would show that the Russia-Ukraine Conflict has taken on more of the characteristics of attrition warfare.
On the surface, the aid packages from the US and EU seem to be very large. However, Yaroslav Trofimov, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal tweeted: “For perspective: 500 Javelins will cover three to five days of fighting. 18 howitzers will account for maybe 3% of deployed field artillery. That many or more get lost in a week. The rate of assistance is a fraction of the rate of depletion.” I would concur with Mr. Trofimov, that the weapons that the US is sending if sufficient for about two weeks.
16 April 2022
Moskva Update:
The total death count of the crew is still fuzzy. Western media is reporting over 450. A spokesperson for the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Captain 1st rank – Kuprin Anton Valerievich
Since the war in Ukraine began, 34 lieutenant colonels or colonels in the Russian Armed Forces have died in action.
Reports show that the crew had about 90-minutes from when the Neptune missiles struck to the rollover of the Moskva.
A concern has arisen on if there were nuclear warheads onboard the Moskva. Andrii Klymenko, project manager at the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Experts say that there are 2 nuclear warheads for cruise missiles onboard the ‘Moskva’ (perhaps this could be news for many, but yes, this ship is a carrier of nuclear weapons),”
Ukraine (Strategic)
In the Donetsk region, Russian forces continue to bombard Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol. Russia has stated they have taken the majority of the city and those final Ukrainian forces have been given a final opportunity to surrender.
For the first time, Russian long-range aircraft, Su-24M and Su-34 bombers were used to bombard Mariupol. They bombed in the vicinity of the Illich Iron & Steel Works (Donetsk region) and seaport.
According to UNHCR, Ukraine currently has 4,869,019 refugees. Other news sources also show the humanitarian crisis of over 10 million displaced persons.
Russia (Strategic)
Russia may declare war on Ukraine. This will be used to implement a complete national mobilization, including conscription.
The majority of fighters are already inexperienced conscripts, and putting them along with a bunch of untrained draftees isn’t going to help anything. They don’t have the logistics to supply what they have, and it’ll be even worse if they have three times the number of people there to feed.
Around the World
British SAS forces are training Ukrainian forces in Kyiv.
As part of the aid package, the US military is going to be training Ukrainian forces on the battlefield systems being sent from the US. The training will occur in Poland.
The Navy will also supply a “mysterious” “unmanned coastal defense vessel.” The Pentagon declined to comment on the coastal defense vessel, which appeared to be a ship drone.
The governments of Italy, France, Germany, and Spain have announced $85B USD of subsidies and tax rebates to offset higher energy prices for households and firms alike.
EU chief, Ursula von der Leyen says she doesn’t distinguish between heavy and light arms and suggests Sberbank could face sanctions. She also urges member states to give Ukraine weapons quickly.
Operational Activity
Small-scale, tactical incursions were conducted by the Russian military in Izyum and Severodonetsk throughout the beginning of April. Even though Russia has provided reinforcements they have to be able to break through the Ukrainian defenses.
According to DNR advisor, Yan Gagin, because AzovStal plant, one of the last remaining defensive Ukr positions, is the size of a city with underground tunnels and structures that can withstand bombing and “even nuclear strike,” the assault on Mariupol is progressing so slowly.
Analysts Note
From an Information Operations perspective, the sinking of the Moskva will continue to fill the airways for the West, for Ukraine, and for Russia. From a tactical view, the sinking will greatly diminish Russia’s ability to do a sea-based land invasion near Odessa. From a strategic view, the sinking will be used by the Ukrainian government to showcase the strength and resistance of the Ukrainian Forces. However, this many become a rallying cry for the Russians to escalate the “military operation” in Ukraine to war with Ukraine. When this occurs, it may not be whether or not the west wants to become operationally more involved but Russia may push them into it when Russia begins targeting western support locations, i.e. staging and training grounds in Poland and other Baltic states. At that point, Article 5 of the NATO agreement would kick in.
The European subsidies and tax rebates – these policies remove the incentives for households to conserve energy. A better policy would be a direct cash payment to households allowing them to determine how to spend the money.
Finally, when will Putin declare war on Ukraine? Over the next two weeks, Putin is going to increase the usage of heavy military weapons. This will be part of an information Operations campaign stemming from the sinking of the Moskva. He will start publicly, to the Russian, deploying tanks and bomber aircraft, as we have seen over the last few days. After this two-week offensive push, President Vladimir Putin and on the May 9 anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat in World War II, Putin will declare on Ukraine as a continuing fight to defeat the Nazis in Ukraine.
15 April 2022
Moskva Update:
Conflicting reports show that about 54 of the 500-person crew survived the sinking. Multiple outlets are reporting that Captain 1st rank Anton Kuprin was killed during the attack. According to Russian officials, the sinking of the Moskva is still being attributed to a fire that broke out onboard and heavy seas while the damaged ship was being towed to the harbor. The Russian ships that had been operating near the Moskva have withdrawn southwards of the Ukrainian coast. I assess this is to move outside of the range of the Neptune ASM (operational range estimated at 300km or 190miles). President Putin has promised 7 million Rubles (approximately $90k USD) to each of the families of Sailors killed when the ship sank.
Ukraine
As a military strategist, Mariupol being still under Ukraining control is quite perplexing. On one hand, fighting in an urban environment is much different than conventional armies on open terrain, which is where Ukraine will be tested in the next month. On the other hand, after a month of Russian shaping operations of using heavy artillery, you would expect the Ukrainian forces to have withdrawn giving Russia the terrain. The question becomes, is it the strength and will of the Ukraine troops or the incompetency of the Russian Army? Mariupol is STILL in Ukraine’s hands, which is completely baffling military planners at this point.
Russia
Dmitri Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, stated that if Ukraine persists in its provocations by attacking Russian cities, Russia will be compelled to go to war against Ukraine. There have also been unconfirmed claims that 20 generals had been detained by Vladimir Putin since the start of the conflict.
On an interesting note, Russia Media has reported that they have been blocked from using popular fonts such as Times New Roman, Arial, Verdana, Tahoma, and Helvetica.. The American firm Monotype Imaging, which owns numerous of the most common fonts used on computers, confirmed it has blocked access to its collection for customers in Russia as a result of continuing international sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine.
Around the World
Germany has taken possession of the biggest superyacht in the world, christened “Dilbar”, which it linked to a Russian oligarch, Alisher Usmanov, a sanctioned Russian billionaire.
Former President Trump came out agreeing with Biden that Putin’s actions in the war in Ukraine amount to genocide.
Columbia is shipping coal to Germany in order to compensate for the difficulties that would result from Russia’s energy cut-offs.
The world is still moving forward with supplying Ukraine with equipment. The US has committed 11x MI17 helicopters (originally earmarked for Afghanistan before the gov fell), 18x 155mm howitzers, 40,000 artillery rounds, counter artillery radar, 200 armor personnel carriers, 300 switchblade drones, coastal defense drone boats, dedicating additional intelligence units. Ukraine will now receive weapons from Japan throughout Europe.
Russia this week sent a diplomatic démarche to the United States warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict there and could bring “unpredictable consequences.”
14 April 2022
The Sinking of the Moskva
The Russian flagship Moskva, which was at the Black Sea, has abandoned ship owing to an incident and has sunk. Ukraine attacked it with two Neptune anti-ship missiles while Russia claims it was a shipboard fire that got out of hand. As of Thursday night, the Washington Post has reported that a senior US official confirmed that the ship sank as a result of a Ukrainian attack. Also being reported is that the Commander of the cruiser Moskva, Captain 1st rank Anton Kuprin was killed during the attack.
The Plan
How the Moskva strategy was carried out. During a storm, Ukraine positioned the Neptune missiles so that neither the ship nor satellites could detect them. The crew of this ship is well-trained in anti-missile strategies and a robust anti-missile defense system, but Ukraine employed a Bayraktar drone to distract them. However, since the Moskva primary radar only has a 180-degree field of view and was focused on the Bayraktar drone, it was pointed away from the incoming missiles.
Quick Moskva Facts
- Moskva was the warship that was featured in the “Russian warship for f yourself” video
- Biggest warship by tonnage to sink during a conflict since World War II
- The most recent time Russia lost a flagship in battle was during the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, when Japan sank the battleship Prince Suvorov.
- This ship was used to defend other vessels against aerial assaults and would have been utilized to bomb Odessa.
- Russia will be unable to replace this ship in the Black Sea. Turkey has implemented parts of an international arrangement that would limit the movement of Russian warships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.
Russian Response
Initially, Russia responded that the had been a fire on board the ship causing a missile battery to explode. Russia has confirmed that the Moskva did sink. Yesterday afternoon, it is being reported, that after the sinking of Flagship Moskva, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Igor Osipov, was violently arrested. This is unconfirmed
Bottomline
This is a major event since it was the pride of the Russian Navy. It’s not only bad for morale in Russia, but it’s also a major boost for Ukraine. This also was a proving ground for the Neptune ASM systems that are being deployed.
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FAQ
What is the Verkhovna Rada? The Verkhovna Rada is the unicameral parliament of Ukraine. The Verkhovna Rada is composed of 450 deputies, who are presided over by a chairman (speaker). The Verkhovna Rada meets in the Verkhovna Rada building in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv.
What is Victory Day? Victory Day is a holiday commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Union in World War II. It is celebrated on May 9th.
What is the Azov regiment? The Azov Regiment is a Ukrainian National Guard unit. It was formed in 2014 during the War in Donbas. The Azov Regiment is based in the city of Mariupol.
What is the Russian Federation? The Russian Federation is a country located in Eurasia. It is the successor state to the Soviet Union. The Russian Federation is composed of 85 federal subjects and has a population of 144 million people.
What is Ukraine? Ukraine is a country located in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east, Belarus to the north, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to the west, and Romania and Moldova to the south. Ukraine has a population of 42 million people.
What is the Donetsk People’s Republic? The Donetsk People’s Republic is a breakaway state in Ukraine. It declared independence from Ukraine in 2014.
What is the Luhansk People’s Republic? The Luhansk People’s Republic is a breakaway state in Ukraine. It declared independence from Ukraine in 2014.
Who’s who in the zoo?
Who is Vladimir Putin? Vladimir Putin is the President of Russia.
Who is Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the current President of Ukraine.
Who is Ramzan Kadyrov? Ramzan Kadyrov is the leader of Chechnya, a republic in Russia.
Who is politician Viktor Medvedchuk? Viktor Medvedchuk is a Ukrainian politician. He is the Chairman of the political party Ukrainian Choice.
Who is Alexander Zakharchenko? Alexander Zakharchenko was the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, a breakaway state in Ukraine. He was assassinated in 2018.
Who is Mikhail Saakashvili? Mikhail Saakashvili is a Ukrainian politician. He was the Governor of Odessa Oblast from 2015 to 2016.
Who is Viktor Yanukovych? Viktor Yanukovych is a Ukrainian politician.
Who is Mayor Andriy Sadovyi? Andriy Sadovyi is the current Mayor of Lviv, Ukraine.
Who is Sergey Lavrov? Sergey Lavrov is the Russian Foreign Minister.
