While perusing an opinion piece by David Ignatius in The Washington Post titled “President Biden should not run again in 2024,” a pressing question emerged, seemingly absent from mainstream discourse: What does America truly envision when they think of a potential President Kamala Harris?
My Republican acquaintances express apprehension at the thought. Their silence speaks volumes, and I fear I can discern the unspoken answer. However, with VP Harris’ overall poor approval ratings, my Democratic friends might share the same reservations, albeit for different reasons.
As we approach the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, the political landscape is rife with speculation, strategies, and scenarios. Among the swirling rumors is the intriguing whisper of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) potentially eyeing Michelle Obama as a nominee. While this remains speculative, a more profound conspiracy theory suggests the DNC has already chosen her as the ‘break glass in case of…’ option.
Yet, my central concern remains: Should President Joe Biden secure re-election in 2024, is he poised to complete his term? Given his age and the political climate, there’s a palpable possibility he might face health challenges, be subjected to the 25th Amendment, or even face impeachment. This article explores these potential outcomes and their implications, especially concerning the Democratic Party’s Vice Presidential pick, who, under certain circumstances, could very well ascend as the de facto President.
Age and health are undeniable factors when considering a presidential term. By 2024, Joe Biden will be 82 years old. While age isn’t a disqualifier, the physical and mental demands of the presidency are immense. According to recent polling data, 57% of all adults believe that Biden’s health and age would severely limit his ability to perform his duties if re-elected in 2024. Among Democrats, 25% share this concern, 43% believe it would have little effect, and 14% feel it would have no effect.
The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, clarified ambiguities in the U.S. Constitution regarding presidential succession. While the Constitution originally stated that the Vice President would assume the “powers and duties” of the presidency in cases of the President’s “death, resignation, or inability,” it didn’t specify whether the Vice President would become the President or merely act as one. This vagueness led to various interpretations over the years, most notably when Vice President John Tyler succeeded William Henry Harrison in 1841 and declared himself the President, setting a precedent. Then, in 1963, with the assassination of President Kennedy and the rumor Vice President Johnson had been injured, the Congress was set into chaos of who would lead the government. The 25th Amendment was introduced to address such ambiguities and ensure a clear line of succession.
With President Biden’s age and health under scrutiny in the current political climate, this Amendment could become a focal point of discussions. Utah Senator Mike Lee and other Republicans have already advocated for its consideration, even though we are two years away from a potential January 2025 swearing-in. As President Biden continues, more Democrats may join this conversation, raising questions about the future of leadership.
The controversies surrounding President Biden, particularly those related to his son, Hunter Biden, now indicted on three felony firearm charges, have given ammunition to his opponents. Republicans have shown a keen interest in pushing for oversight into Hunter’s dealings and have floated the idea of impeachment proceedings against President Biden. While the grounds for such an impeachment are still nebulous, the very threat of it looms large. If the Republicans find traction with any of their allegations, impeachment could become a real possibility.
My analysis of the last two presidential elections, grounded in the “Keys to the White House” model, offers a unique perspective on the upcoming 2024 race. If Donald Trump secures the Republican nomination, Joe Biden emerges as the only Democratic contender with a fighting chance to win. Biden’s familiarity, experience, and previous victory against Trump position him as the most formidable opponent to Trump’s brand of politics. The fear of another Trump term and the passionate support for Trump himself could be the driving force behind high voter turnout. Trump’s polarizing presence has the potential to mobilize both those who are determined to prevent his return to power and those who fervently support him, creating a significant surge in voter participation.
However, the landscape shifts dramatically if Trump is not on the Republican ticket. In that scenario, Biden’s vulnerabilities become more pronounced, and any Republican nominee, bolstered by the incumbent party’s performance metrics, would likely have the upper hand against him. This dynamic underscores the importance of the Democratic Party’s strategic decisions in the lead-up to 2024.
If the Democratic Party hired me as a strategist, here’s what I’d advise:
Firstly, if Trump is running, Biden stays, and we pick the Vice President based on the premise that they will move into the presidency because Biden steps down. This “Beat Trump and step down” model ensures a Democratic win against Trump and a smooth transition.
If Trump is not running, the Democrats should find a candidate who will have a good showing. While this candidate will probably lose based on my keys model, they should be primed and ready for a strong campaign in 2028.
As the Democratic Party stands at a crossroads leading up to the 2024 elections, uncertainty surrounds President Biden’s candidacy. This uncertainty forces the party to make pivotal decisions. The first question is whether Biden remains the party’s strongest contender. If he does decide to run, the choice of Vice President takes on paramount importance.
Amid these uncertainties, whispers of alternative candidates like Gavin Newsom, known for his fundraising prowess, and JB Pritzker, backed by significant financial resources, have emerged. This begs whether the party should explore candidates beyond the usual suspects. Names like Pete Buttigieg, despite facing challenges during his tenure at the Transportation Department, Amy Klobuchar, recognized for her pragmatic approach, and Gretchen Whitmer, lauded for her leadership during challenging times, have also gained prominence.
As the Democratic Party grapples with these multifaceted challenges, it must remain mindful that its decisions will not only influence the outcome of the 2024 elections but also shape the trajectory of American politics for years to come. In this context, the Democratic Party’s choice of Vice President takes on heightened significance, as the individual selected, whether Kamala Harris or an alternative, may be called upon to assume the presidency under various scenarios. The party must assess whether their chosen VP possesses the capability, appeal, and leadership qualities to guide the nation effectively.
