Battleground Breakdown: Who Will Win the 2024 Election?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, I’ve revisited Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House” to analyze the current political landscape through a state-specific lens. This approach allows for a nuanced understanding of how individual states may vote, based on political dynamics, performance indicators, and candidate personalities. After thorough analysis, I project that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat former President Donald Trump, securing 276 electoral votes to Trump’s 262.

Setting Up the 2024 Election Analysis

In applying Lichtman’s 13 Keys, I tailored the model to incorporate three main categories: Political, Performance, and Personality keys, each weighted based on both national trends and state-specific dynamics.

1. Political Keys:
   • Incumbency: Unlike in 2020, neither candidate is the sitting president, meaning neither benefits from the incumbency. This absence of an incumbency advantage shapes the race as one without an inherent tilt toward continuity.
   • House Changes: Using the 2022 midterms as a benchmark, I analyzed shifts in House representation by state. States where Republicans gained seats were seen as leaning toward Trump, while states where Democrats maintained or gained strength tended to support Harris.
   • Governor’s Party: Through discussions with my father, I realized that voters often favor a balance between state and federal powers. Thus, states with Republican governors were counted as leaning toward Harris, as voters might prefer a Democratic federal administration to offset state leadership.
2. Performance Keys:
   • Economic Indicators: Traditional metrics such as unemployment rates, GDP growth, and inflation were considered. Despite positive national trends favoring the Biden administration and, by extension, Harris, public perception often conflicts with these indicators. For instance, while inflation rates have stabilized, many voters still feel the pinch of high living costs.
   • Gas Prices: A personal conversation with a military friend highlighted concerns over gas prices. As of November 1, 2024, the national average gas price is $3.13 per gallon. This is notably lower than in 2011, when we contemplated biking to the Pentagon as gas prices neared $5 per gallon. This historical context underscores how current prices, though higher than some years, are not unprecedented.
   • Border Security: Replacing the pandemic as the defining issue, border security has emerged as a critical concern in 2024. In southern states especially, voters have expressed dissatisfaction with federal handling of border issues, which has shifted the advantage toward Trump in states like Arizona and Texas.
3. Personality Keys:
   • Candidate Favorability: Harris shows a slight edge on favorability, albeit modest, among broader audiences. Trump’s base remains loyal, but Harris’s net approval gives her a slight advantage among moderates and suburban voters in states that remain in play.

Predicted State Outcomes for Harris and Trump

After applying this approach, I assigned each state based on these combined factors, producing the following predictions:

Safe Democratic States:

• California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia

Likely Democratic States:

• New Jersey, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia

Lean Democratic States:

• Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada

Safe Republican States:

• Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska

Likely Republican States:

• Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Kansas, Montana, Utah, Alaska

Key Toss-Up States Expected to Lean Trump:

• Arizona (flipping from Biden in 2020)
• Georgia (flipping from Biden in 2020)
• North Carolina
• Florida (Trump held in 2020)
• Texas (Trump held in 2020)
• Ohio (Trump held in 2020)

Key Flips from 2020

In 2020, Biden’s victory hinged on wins in battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, for 2024, my analysis projects Trump is likely to flip Arizona and Georgia, returning them to the Republican column. Trump is also expected to hold onto Texas and Florida, which he won in 2020, further solidifying his support in the South and Southwest.

Final Prediction – 276 to 262

Using this updated methodology, I project a narrow victory for Harris with 276 electoral votes, while Trump is projected to earn 262 electoral votes. It’s a razor-thin margin, underscoring the intense competitiveness of this election. Harris’s success depends heavily on holding Midwest and Northeast battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump’s base is fortified across the South and parts of the West.

Reflections and Potential Complications

Georgia stands out as a particularly interesting state to watch on Election Day, given its battleground status and history of close elections. My primary concern, however, is not just the final tally but the potential for misinformation and post-election challenges. Trump and his allies have already begun casting doubt on election integrity, setting up conditions for possible accusations of fraud, legal disputes, and even civil unrest if the results do not favor him.

In 2020, Trump’s attempts to contest the election results were largely unsuccessful due to a lack of support from officials. However, 2024 brings a new landscape. With three Supreme Court Justices appointed by Trump, state officials sympathetic to his agenda, and a Speaker of the House who aligns closely with his views, the post-election period could see amplified challenges to the outcome. The possibility of alternate electors, lawsuits, and coordinated political strategies to contest the results is very real and could escalate significantly compared to 2020.

Conclusion

The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in recent history. My analysis, based on a state-specific application of Lichtman’s “13 Keys,” points to a narrow victory for Harris, but it also reveals how razor-thin the margins are in key states. In an election climate charged with high stakes and heightened scrutiny, this race will test the resilience of U.S. democratic processes like no election in recent memory.

In summary, while Harris appears poised to secure a victory with 276 electoral votes, the true story of the 2024 election may well unfold in the days and weeks following Election Day, as both parties brace for a contested outcome.