Roe v Wade overturned – it will RESHAPE the nation

The overturning of Roe v. Wade will have a profound and lasting impact on the nation. For close to 50 years, the landmark decision has guaranteed women the right to privacy between themselves and their doctor, giving women the right to abortion. With the Supreme Court now dominated by what many consider Pro-Trump conservative justices, a leaked draft opinion regarding a Mississippi Abortion Law shows that right is in jeopardy.

Biden is in a bad position

The overturning of Roe could be the one item that will help the Democrats in the midterms. In a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Republicans are 10 points greater than Democrats when asked if they are sure they would vote in the mid-terms. In a CNN poll, 33% of Republicans are fired up about politics, while only 25% of Democrats.

Regarding issues, voters believe that Republicans would do a better job dealing with the economy, controlling inflation, crime, and immigration. The latest CNN poll of polls showed that 55% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job, and his overall approval rating still sits at a disappointing 40%. 86% of Americans are concerned or scared about how things are going in the US. Overwhelmingly, inflation is the number one concern of Americans, both on the right and left sides of the aisle, and only 30% are concerned with domestic or social issues.

Who will go to the polls mid-term?

Republicans will have an advantage in the midterm climate, looking at the enthusiasm aspect. Traditionally, people come out to vote based on their concerns and protests. Incumbents typically do not pull large crowds because there is still optimism about what the party will achieve. Looking at the first midterms after a new President, the incumbent always has a tough time. Since World War II, on average, the incumbent’s party has lost one senate seat and twenty-three seats in the House. If that were to happen, the Republicans would gain both the Senate and the House. However, when the President’s approval rating is below +5, Bidens is currently -15, on average, the President’s party loses 39 seats in the House. Just as a comparison, in 2010, President Obama lost 64 seats in the House. In 2022, there are few competitive districts than in 2010; however, there is a chance that “only 64” may be the best that the White House can hope for. 

Where does Roe Play?

Over the last six months, five states have enacted strict abortion restrictions. If Roe is overturned, 23 states are already set, either through trigger laws or other legislation, to immediately ban abortion.

Will the Democrats make the overturn of Roe v Wade a referendum on the court decision? President Biden stated last week that “…if the court does overturn Roe, it will fall on the nation’s elected officials at all levels of government to protect a woman’s right to choose…” “and it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November.” 

One of the statistics used to promote the Democrats’ view is that almost 63% of Americans say they oppose overturning the 1973 landmark decision. Democrats will have to push for the midterm that only Democrats will protect our freedoms. It will become the central choice in the 2022 election. 

There are very few issues that can upend or change the trajectory of an election; however, Roe might be one. 

Republicans are getting the religious legal system they wanted

Just a decade ago, I can remember the Bachmann Five wanting DoD and State Department to investigate if Muslim extremists were infiltrating the US Government. The fear-mongering that the US would fall under Sharia Law or the loosely defined Islamic law that the Republicans did not understand. Today, they are attempting to apply their version of religious law and have been working on getting the court shaped in the direction they wanted. 

Courts leaked opinion

Don’t get me wrong, I agree about parts of the opinion that Justice Samuel Alito wrote. Abortion should have never been legislated in the courts, and it should have been in Congress. Alito stated that “it is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”

There is another point that I sadly agree with, not the concept but the historical record. “The inescapable conclusion is that the right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the nation’s history and traditions.” He is correct; it does not explicitly state abortion in the constitution. He is also correct that any right for a woman is also not in the constitution. There is not a fundamental right for women to control their bodies. But yet Congress can give them that right? We as a nation have a tradition of restricting women’s rights. Our history has been that men can control what women do. Not just their bodies but their votes in the 1920s until 1974, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act passed, which allowed women to have credit cards and bank accounts without a man’s permission. We have a sad history of men telling women what, when, and how they can act.

Cascading Effect

Roe v Wade was not about the right to an abortion; it was the right to privacy, the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth. What are other laws based on this? Griswold v Connecticut, the right to use birth control? Lawrence v Texas which regulated the acceptable behavior of consenting adults? Obergefell v Hodges legalized same-sex marriage. 

In 2015, Justice Roberts stated, “The purpose of insisting that implied fundamental rights have roots in the history and tradition of our people is to ensure that when unelected judges strike down democratically enacted laws, they do so based on something more than their own beliefs.” Well, it would appear is that is precisely where we are today. Five justices base their decision on beliefs.

Democrats must vote

Will the Democrats understand this call to action and go to vote? There must be enthusiasm and concern to drive Democrats to the polls. If they are apprehensive and sit back, the following two years will be devastating. If they want women to have the right to abortion, they must maintain their power in Congress to pass a Pro-Abortion Bill, and if that fails, they must pass a bill at the state level.