If Russia were to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, the United States and NATO would only have a few options, all of which end with a best-case scenario that Putin is deterred from using another one.
The first thing that should be mentioned is that we must set right and left limits. Simply because they would have two very different responses. For argument’s sake, let’s only talk about Russia launching a tactical nuclear weapon into Ukraine against Ukrainian forces.
The US and NATO’s four options
- Non-military response
- Conventional military response
- Nuclear response
- Regime Change
Non-military response
The First would be a non-military response. This would consist of the US and NATO trying to maximize the use of sanctions against Russia. They would also move to try and increase support for Ukraine diplomatically and economically. This response would make it so costly for Russia that Putin would not want to use nuclear weapons again because he knows the world will isolate him. The problem with this is that the response looks weak and Putin is not deterred, and other dictators are then empowered, then a conventional war is all but certain.
Conventional military response
The second would be a conventional military response. This would involve the US and NATO sending troops to Ukraine as well as giving them heavy weapons. This option also includes increasing the number of troops in NATO countries that border Russia, such as Estonia and Latvia. Within this response, the US and NATO would focus on engaging ground troops and targeting all naval assets in the Black Sea. The idea is that by increasing the costs to Russia, Putin will again be deterred from using nuclear weapons. But, this could also lead to a direct military confrontation between the US and NATO forces and Russia. The problem with this is that it could lead to a full-scale war between Russia and NATO, leading to a nuclear exchange.
Nuclear response
The third would be a nuclear response. In this option, the US and NATO would launch a limited nuclear strike against Russia in response to their use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This would be designed to send a message to Putin that nuclear weapons have consequences and that he should not use them again. The problem with this is that it could lead to an all-out nuclear war between the US and Russia, which would be catastrophic for both sides.
Regime change
The fourth and final option would be regime change. The US and NATO would try to overthrow Putin and his government in this option. This would be done through a combination of economic sanctions, covert action, and military force. The problem with this is that it is very unlikely to succeed and could lead to another world war.
So, these are the four options that the US and NATO would have if Russia were to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. None of them are good options, and all of them come with many risks. But, the US and NATO would have to choose one and hope for the best.
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